In the Linda problem, if you judge that it is more likely that Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement than that Linda is a bank teller, you are likely using the _ heuristic and committing the _____ fallacy.
a. availability; gambling
b. availability; conjunction
c. representativeness; gambling
d. representativeness; conjunction
The Correct Answer and Explanation is :
The correct answer is:
d. representativeness; conjunction
Explanation:
The Linda problem is a well-known cognitive bias scenario introduced by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. It involves a description of a woman named Linda, who is described as being 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright, with a strong interest in social justice and activism. The task is to determine which of two statements is more probable:
- Linda is a bank teller.
- Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement.
Many people tend to judge the second statement (that Linda is both a bank teller and a feminist) as more likely, even though this is logically incorrect. According to the principles of probability theory, the conjunction (both events happening) cannot be more probable than a single event. The probability of two events occurring simultaneously (conjunction) is always less than or equal to the probability of either event occurring alone.
This fallacy occurs because people often rely on the representativeness heuristic when making judgments. The representativeness heuristic is a mental shortcut where people assess the likelihood of an event based on how much it resembles typical cases or stereotypes. In this scenario, the description of Linda matches the stereotype of a feminist more than the stereotype of a bank teller, which leads people to believe that the combination of both events is more likely than just one.
However, this judgment is a mistake because, by definition, the probability of the conjunction of two events (Linda being both a bank teller and a feminist) is always less than or equal to the probability of one event (Linda being just a bank teller).
This is the conjunction fallacy, where people incorrectly assume that the combination of two events is more likely than a single event because the combination seems more representative of the description.
In summary, the representativeness heuristic leads to the conjunction fallacy, which causes people to incorrectly judge the likelihood of a conjunction (Linda being both a bank teller and a feminist) as greater than a single event (Linda being a bank teller).