Identify the most likely type of causal relationship for the two situations below and explain why. There may be more than one correct answer, you are getting marked solely on your explanation. The first variable listed is the independent variable and the second is the dependent for this question. Each-One for the type and one for the justification]
1. Cause and Effect
2. Common-Cause Factor
3. Reverse Cause and Effect
4. Accidental
5. Presumed
a) Median income of families, Number of crimes.
b) Bicycle Sales, Passengers using YRT (Buses).
The correct answer and explanation is :
For both situations, we can identify the most likely causal relationships based on the nature of the variables and their logical connections.
a) Median Income of Families, Number of Crimes.
Likely Causal Relationship: 2. Common-Cause Factor
Explanation:
In this situation, the relationship between median income and the number of crimes is likely influenced by a third underlying factor that affects both variables. A common cause could be factors like socio-economic conditions, neighborhood quality, or even the availability of resources. Typically, areas with lower median income may have higher levels of poverty, social inequality, or unemployment, which could increase the likelihood of criminal behavior. Conversely, areas with higher median income may benefit from better infrastructure, education, and opportunities, leading to a lower crime rate.
However, it is crucial to note that the variables “Median Income” and “Number of Crimes” do not directly influence each other in a clear cause-effect manner. Instead, both are impacted by underlying social and economic factors, such as government policies, employment opportunities, or educational systems. Thus, these two variables are more likely to share a common cause, making Common-Cause Factor the most appropriate explanation.
b) Bicycle Sales, Passengers Using YRT (Buses).
Likely Causal Relationship: 4. Accidental
Explanation:
The relationship between bicycle sales and bus passengers using YRT (York Region Transit) seems to be accidental. There’s no inherent reason why an increase in bicycle sales would directly cause more people to use buses, or vice versa. These two events may coincide due to unrelated external factors, such as a regional transportation policy change or a seasonal trend (e.g., warmer weather encouraging both cycling and public transit use). The coincidence of increased bicycle sales and higher bus ridership is likely just a correlation without a clear causal link. There could be external factors (e.g., a push for green commuting, or the availability of bike racks on buses) that cause both trends to rise, but there is no direct, inherent causal relationship.
In this case, any observed correlation between bicycle sales and bus ridership is accidental rather than based on a direct cause-effect relationship.
Visual Representation:
The diagram below shows the two identified relationships:
- a) Common-Cause Factor: Median Income → Common Factor → Number of Crimes
- b) Accidental: Bicycle Sales ↔ YRT Passengers (Accidental Correlation)
Here is the infographic illustrating the causal relationships for the two scenarios you provided:
- Median Income of Families → Common Cause → Number of Crimes
- Bicycle Sales ↔ Passengers Using YRT Buses (Accidental Correlation)