Determine what kind of deductive or inductive argument is represented by the following passage. Paying off terrorists in exchange for hostages is not a wise policy, since such action will only lead them to take more hostages in the future.
A. Deductive (categorical syllogism)
B. Deductive (hypothetical syllogism)
C. Deductive (argument based on definition)
D. Deductive (disjunctive syllogism)
E. Inductive (argument from analogy)
F. Inductive (argument from authority)
G. Inductive (causal inference)
H. Inductive (generalization)
I. Inductive (prediction)
J. Deductive (argument based on mathematics)
The correct answer and explanation is:
The correct answer is G. Inductive (causal inference).
Explanation:
The argument in the passage is inductive because it draws a conclusion based on observed or hypothesized cause-and-effect relationships. The statement suggests that paying off terrorists in exchange for hostages is not a wise policy because it will likely lead to future hostage-taking by terrorists. The reasoning is based on the idea that engaging in one action (paying off terrorists) will cause another action (more hostage-taking in the future), which is a classic example of causal inference.
In inductive reasoning, the premises support the conclusion, but they do not guarantee it. The argument relies on the assumption that the future behavior of terrorists will be influenced by the previous action of paying for hostages. While the conclusion is plausible, it is not necessarily certain, which is a hallmark of inductive reasoning.
Inductive arguments like this one often involve extrapolating from past experiences, patterns, or a perceived relationship between two events. In this case, the inference is that past instances of paying off terrorists have led to more hostage-taking, so continuing this practice will likely result in the same outcome in the future. However, because the reasoning is based on probability rather than certainty, it is not a deductive argument.
Therefore, the argument can be categorized as inductive and more specifically as causal inference, since it is based on the belief that one event (paying off terrorists) causes another event (more hostage-taking).