In a population, if a TFR is a number like 1.1, that means that each women (on average) is going to have one child in her childbearing years. Since men won’t be having children, and women will only be having enough children to replace themselves when they die, what do you think will be happening to the population of these low-TFR countries? these populations are stable (they won’t be rising or falling) these populations will be shrinking quickly the populations will rise quickly, then fall the populations will be rising quickly
The Correct Answer and Explanation is:
The correct answer is that these populations will be shrinking quickly.
A Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.1 suggests that each woman is having, on average, fewer than two children in her lifetime. Since a TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement rate (the number of children needed to replace both parents in the population), a TFR of 1.1 indicates that the population is not being replenished at the same rate as it is dying off.
As a result, the number of people in the population will begin to decrease because the number of births is insufficient to replace the number of deaths. This effect is amplified over time because, as the population ages (due to low birth rates), the number of deaths will increase, while the younger generation that would typically replace the older one will be much smaller.
This trend is characteristic of countries with very low fertility rates. In these populations, the working-age population will also shrink, leading to economic challenges, such as a reduced labor force, fewer tax revenues, and increased pressure on social services like healthcare and pensions, as the proportion of elderly people increases.
If the TFR remains at such a low level over an extended period, the population decline will accelerate, resulting in a rapidly shrinking population. Some countries with very low fertility rates have already begun to experience these challenges, and unless there is a shift in fertility patterns or significant immigration to offset the decline, the population will continue to shrink quickly.
This phenomenon is a stark contrast to the rapid growth seen in countries with high TFRs, where the population increases quickly due to higher birth rates.
