Which of the following are short-term drivers of currency valuation? Choose the best answer.
Surprise changes in central bank rates, trade and inflation
Surprise changes in central bank-rates, inflation and gold
Changes in a country’s PPP (Big Mac Index) ?value, trade and inflation
The Correct Answer and Explanation is:
Correct Answer:
Surprise changes in central bank rates, trade and inflation
Explanation
Currency valuation, or the value of one currency relative to another, is influenced by various factors that operate over different time horizons. Short-term drivers of currency valuation typically include factors that cause immediate or rapid changes in investor sentiment and capital flows. Among the options provided, the best set of short-term drivers includes surprise changes in central bank rates, trade, and inflation.
- Surprise changes in central bank rates are among the most influential short-term drivers. When a central bank unexpectedly raises or lowers interest rates, it affects the attractiveness of a currency to investors. A higher interest rate can attract foreign capital seeking better returns, boosting demand for the currency. Conversely, a rate cut can lead to capital outflows. The key term here is surprise—anticipated changes are usually already priced into the market, while unexpected shifts trigger immediate currency movements.
- Trade balances also affect currency valuation. A country with a trade surplus (exporting more than it imports) typically sees higher demand for its currency, as foreign buyers need the local currency to purchase goods. In the short term, changes in trade dynamics, such as a sudden increase in exports or tariffs, can influence currency value.
- Inflation, particularly unexpected inflation data, can influence short-term currency movements. Higher inflation often leads to expectations of interest rate hikes, which can temporarily boost a currency. However, persistent inflation can hurt a currency if it erodes purchasing power and investor confidence.
In contrast, factors like Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), including the Big Mac Index, are considered long-term valuation tools. Gold is more of a global commodity hedge and does not directly impact a specific currency’s short-term value unless that country is a major gold exporter or importer.
Thus, surprise central bank rate changes, trade, and inflation are the most relevant short-term drivers of currency valuation
